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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its outlook for winter 2009-2010. The outlook covers December through February.

Seasonal outlooks cannot be specific about the type of weather the will occur on any particular day or week. What they do is present the probabilities of temperature and precipitation over the entire season averaging above, below and near normal.

The temperature outlook for this winter in Wisconsin suggests about a 35-40% chance of temperatures averaging above normal. The chance of temperatures averaging below normal is about 27-32%. Temperatures averaging near normal is about 33% probable.

While that outlook is far from conclusive, it is at least a little more specific than the precipitation outlook. It suggests equal chances for above, below and near normal precipitation.

It's important to understand that even if temperatures do end up averaging above normal, it doesn't mean there won't be any unusually cold days or weeks. It just means that the number of days that are colder than normal will be exceeded by those that are warmer than normal. Also, even though there the probability of temperatures averaging above normal is higher than near or below, a 35-40% chance is far from a sure thing.

Here is a link to the story and maps on the NOAA website...
http://beta.w1.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2009/20091015_winteroutlook.html