ckoplien@todaystmj4.com

It's going to be close.

A pretty strong weather system is expected to bring heavy rain tonight and tomorrow to Iowa, Illinois and Missouri.  While I am confident that that is where the big action will stay (to our south), I can't be sure that the northern fringes of that weather system won't affect us.

Current indications are that scattered showers are possible from around Midnight tonight through late afternoon on Saturday.

You would be wise to be prepared for a shower or two or three when you are outdoors on the 4th of July.  

On the positive side, however, keep the following in mind...

...as I write this (around 7am on Friday morning) the showers are a possibility, not a certainty.  It's still not out of the question that we could get through the 4th of July dry.

...current indications are that if we have showers in the area, they will be scattered enough that not everyone will get them.  Furthermore, it looks as though they would be of the on-and-off variety.  That is, it does not appear that it would rain non-stop all day.

...with the threat of rain running from around Midnight tonight through late Saturday afternoon, current indications are that most/all fireworks shows are not in jeopardy of being rained out.  Tonight's big fireworks display in Downtown Milwaukee will likely be over by the time the rain threat starts around Midnight...and the threat of showers looks as though it will end before the start of tomorrow night's fireworks in so many other communities.

Unfortunately, there are still a few things that could change about the expectations I've listed above...

...if the entire weather system takes a more northward track than our computer projections are currently showing, we could find ourselves with a higher threat for a more-steady-type rain.

...if the weather system moves faster than our computer projections currently indicate, the threat for rain could kick in earlier tonight...potentially having an impact on the Downtown Milwaukee fireworks.

...if the weather system moves slower than current projections, the threat for rain could linger into tomorrow evening...perhaps jeopardizing fireworks displays at that time.

I wish I could be more clear-cut...but it's going to be really close. 

As always, as we get closer to the time-frame in question, the forecast does become more definitive.  So, as always, I encourage you to check in with our forecasts during our newscasts later today and tomorrow on TODAY'S TMJ4.