Craig Koplien: Weather or Not

El Nino is Spanish for The Nino

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El Nino is Spanish for The Nino

By Craig Koplien (WTMJ)

ckoplien@todaystmj4.com

It is becoming more and more likely that El Nino conditions will develop this summer and continue into this winter. This means that the waters in the Pacific Ocean near the equator are expected to be warmer than normal. When this happens, it can have an affect on the weather pattern across Wisconsin and around the world.
 
Last winter, we had La Nina conditions. That is, cooler than normal waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The National Weather Service has determined that, since 1950, an El Nino winter followed a La Nina winter has occurred 6 times. The NWS did research to determine what type of weather Wisconsin experienced during those El Nino years. Here’s what they found: temperatures were colder than normal, especially in December; it was drier than normal, especially in the summer and again in November; and there was less snow than normal, especially in January and February.
 
Since the La Nina-followed-by-El Nino scenario has only occurred 6 times in the last 60 years, the weather trends that the NWS uncovered can’t be considered rock-solid. Nevertheless, examining how past weather scenarios have played out can often provide us with at least some ballpark signals as what may be to come in the future.