Weather
Craig Koplien: Weather or NotDo Monster Tornadoes Only Hit Late at Night?By Craig Koplien
I find it curious that all of these monster tornadoes happened in the wee hours of the morning. I always thought that the biggest storms were in late afternoon/early evening because of the sun’s ability to heat the air?
I’m sure there’s a reason – enlighten me!
Also, is this metro less susceptible to big storms because of the lake?
After I sent him my response, it occurred to me that some of you out in blog-land might be interested as well. So here's my reply... Hey J. Pat… Here’s the deal…you are exactly right that most tornadoes occur during the afternoon and evening. In Wisconsin, the peak time-frame for tornadoes is 2-10pm...and single most probable hour for initiation is 6-7pm That is overwhelmingly the preferred time of day for tornadoes, primarily because that’s the warmest part of the day.
There are comparatively few tornadoes that strike around or after Midnight. HOWEVER, when they do, and they strike a populated area…they are almost always deadly. And the reason is simple: people are sleeping. It’s as simple as that.
And to take it one step further, tornadoes that are the most deadly, are the ones that get the most coverage on the news. So, they stand out more to us. We hear more about the most deadly ones. And these tend to be the ones that happen when people are sleeping. I think there's a parallel between late-night tornadoes and tornadoes hitting mobile home parks. It seems like these places are always getting hit, doesn't it. Some people even claim mobile homes “attract” tornadoes. Of course that’s not true. But what is true is that when a tornado does hit one, people are going to be hurt and killed. Every time. When people are hurt and killed, there is more coverage of the situation on the news.
The 1984 Barneveld tornado was terribly uncommon for 2 reasons: the time of night it hit, of course…and its strength. Wisconsin averages an F5 tornado only once every several years. That fact that Barneveld got hit by an F5…and that it was in the middle of the night…was nearly unprecedented in Wisconsin.
The answer to your other question about the lake’s influence on tornadoes is…yes…and no.
On the one hand, there are situations when cool air from over Lake Michigan spreads inland to a great enough extent that, when storms approaching from the west run into it, they weaken. Now, whether they weaken enough to no longer cause damage…or for a tornado that is in progress to dissipate…depends of subtle specifics of each situation. A strong tornado can plow right into cool, stable air and make it out into the lake before weakening. A weak tornado would be influenced more so by the cool, lake air and would likely dissipate quicker. On the other hand, there are just as many times when cooling from the lake is not taking place across lakeshore areas. In those cases, powerful storms/tornadoes can even strengthen as they approach the city of Milwaukee and other areas along the lakeshore…and therefore can do just as much damage, or more, as they may have done further inland.
Bottom line is that each situation is different with respect to whether Lake Michigan might lead weakening of storms as the approach. And again, even in situations when the storms may “weaken” as they approach, that doesn’t mean that they couldn't still be powerful and damaging.
And that concludes 94.5 Lake FM WeatherSchool for today…
Craig
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