email:  ckoplien@todaystmj4.com

So...have you heard the Olympics are coming up?

They begin in Beijing, China on August 8th.

And it's not going to rain.

Unless they want it to.

Chinese scientists say they are confident that they will be able to keep the rain away from the outdoor events...and they will be able to make it rain if they need to clear the air of pollution.

Ah, ha.  Right.

In the business, we call this "weather modification".

We also call it a pipe-dream.

Okay, that may be a little strong.  There has been quite a bit of study over the years as to weather humans may be able to affect short-term weather...the same way we have impacted long-term climate change by causing global warming.

At this point, most scientists remain doubtful that the Chinese have figured out how to make it rain.

It may be a little show-boating. 

Or maybe it's the scientists saying "yes, sir!", to the politicians who told the scientists that they better figure out a way to control the weather...or else!

According to a story in USA Today, China spends $100 million a year on rainmaking.

Wow.

Here's what they're doing:  they are blasting silver iodide into the air with rocket launchers and anti-aircraft guns.  The silver iodide suppsedly "seeds" the clouds...leading them to rain.  Its cloud-seeding weapons include 6,781 artillery guns and 4,110 rocket launchers, according to the state-run Xinhua news agency.

Again, this isn't a completely unheard of idea.  But for all intents and purposes, it remains just that...an idea.

The plan is that if rain threatens the opening or closing ceremony, officials will fire their rocket launchers outside Beijing...causing the clouds to release their rain before they get to the city.

"We are now drafting the implementation plan for the artificial rain mitigation for the opening and closing ceremonies," said Wang Yubin, a Beijing Meteorological Bureau engineer. "This is a very complex process, so we must select the right time and place."

I'm with him there.  It's complex.

"I don't think their chances of preventing rain are very high at all," said Roelof Bruintjes, a meteorologist with the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, who was in China several weeks ago and told top-ranking Chinese scientists he was skeptical.  "If there is really a weather system that is producing rain, they won't be able to do anything. We can't chase away a cloud, and nobody can make a cloud, either."

Andy Detwiler, a professor of meteorology at the South Dakota School of Mines and Technology who edits the Journal of Weather Modification, suggested the Olympic weather-harnassing effort may not meet with much more success.  "It's the emperor and his new clothes sort of thing. Nobody wants to admit there is any uncertainty involved in the operation," he said. "The only nations I know of who claim that they can schedule the weather — clear skies for public events, prevent rain at big celebrations — is the old Soviet Union and China."

A recent study in Oklahoma and Texas uncovered little evidence that cloud seeding works. Like China, many American programs are run by local governments with little coordination from the nation's capital.  "You just don't see any consistent signal that these activities are producing any more rainfall than what normally would have occurred," said Jeff Basara, director of research for the Oklahoma Climatological Survey. "You're much better off conserving water than trying to make it rain."

So...let's just say that there are a lot of scientists (i.e. most) in our country who believe the Chinese are full of fortune cookies on this one.