email:  ckoplien@todaystmj4.com

Stop me if you've heard this one before:  The Farmer's Alamanc is predicting and long, cold, snowy winter.

Shocking!

That makes this year, I believe, the 8 millionth year in a row that this high-brow, scientific journal has published that forecast.

Anyone paying attention knows that the Farmer's Alamanc's predictions are similar to horoscopes.  They are always just general enough to be at least a little correct.  And every once in a while they find a needle in haystack, just like you do when you find a $5 bill in your pants pocket that you forgot about.

Here's how it goes every year:  the Farmer's Almanac predicts a couple stretches of very cold weather in January and February.

And almost every year they get that right.

You know why?

Because it's January and February!!!!!  There are always a couple stretches of very cold weather during the coldest months of the year!!!!!

And every year they predict a big snowstorm in December somewhere in the Midwest.  Sometimes they get that right too. 

You know why?

It snows in December in the Midwest!!!  And the Midwest is a large area!!!

Forecasting a few months in advance is, to be generous, difficult for even the most today's best minds in the field of atmospheric science.  It certainly can't be done 2 years in advance, using a mathetical formula that considers the positions of the planets, sunspots, and the impact of the moon on the Earth, as the Farmer's Almanac claims.

Furthermore, forecasting specific weather for a day, or a few days, months in advance is impossible.

Impossible.

Still, the Farmer's Alamanc is predicting heavy snow in Wisconsin this December 8-11...and December 24-27.

Could it happen?  Sure.  But it would be like picking the winning numbers in the lottery.  It's unlikely, but every couple of weeks, somebody does win the lottery. 

The real science that real meteorologists use to forecast long-term is improving.  Still, the best we can do is provide probabilities as to weather a season will have above average, below average, or near average temperatures and precipitation.

For the upcoming winter season, the National Weather Service indicates there is a 50% chance that temperatures will average ABOVE normal, a 33% chance that temperatures will average NEAR normal, and a 17% chance that temperatures will average BELOW normal.

So, that means we're going to have a warmer than normal winter, right?

Not necessarily.  There's only a 50% chance of that.

Plus, it's also important to understand that there is a 50% chance that temperatures will AVERAGE above normal.  That doesn't mean each day will be above normal.  There could be plenty of very cold days.  It just means that the above normal days should outnumber the below normal days. 

So, not exactly a forecast that brimming with confidence, right?  Not exactly a sure thing, right?

And do you know why that is?

Because even with the greatest minds on earth, using the most advance computer technology on earth, it's dang near impossible to forecast the weather a few months in advance.

I guarantee you the goofs that publish the Farmer's Almanac every year have no better chance of getting their forecast correct than you have picking tonight's winning lottery numbers.