Craig Koplien: Weather or Not
Story Created:
May 5, 2008
Story Updated:
May 5, 2008
Brewers Lose The Division...
Craig Koplien
email: ckoplien@todaystmj4.comThe news broke last Friday: Brewers ace pitcher Yovani Gallardo had torn his ACL (anterior cruciate ligament - a ligament in his knee).
It happened the day before in Chicago when he was involved in a collision at 1st base.
Gallardo is (was) easily the Brewers second-best starting pitcher...and an argument can be made that he is (was) the best.
It now looks like he won't get a chance to prove that again until March 2009 in Arizona (spring training next year).
I am of the opinion that Gallardo's injury probably will cost the Brewers the division this year.
Well, probably is a pretty strong word. Do you prefer "likely"? (And that's if you even believed they were going to the win the division in the first place.)
Here's my view...
If Gallardo had been healthy all season, he would have had something like 27 more starts.
I say he would have went 13-7 in those starts...with 7 no-decisions. I think the team would have then went 3-4 in those no-decisions.
That's would have made the Brewers 16-11 in games Gallardo started the rest of the season .
It appears that Gallardo's spot in the rotation is Dave Bush's to lose for now. I'm guessing we'll also get to see Jeff Weaver pitching in that spot in the rotation at some point later this month or June. But beyond that, there's nobody else at Triple A that you could even expect to reach the low level at which Bush and Weaver will set the bar.
At Double A, there are a couple guys who have pretty good numbers, but no one who shows up anywhere on the "prospect" list.
At best, I can't envision a scenario where the Bush/Weaver/Somebody-Else-From-The-Organization Combination goes better than 9-11 in 20 games with a decision...with the Crew going 2-5 in games where that starter doesn't get a decision.
The bottom line is that puts the Brewers 11-16 in the games the Gallardo no longer will start.
So...to compare...16-11 with Gallardo...11-16 without Gallardo.
That's a 5-game swing.
Not much, you say?
That's enormous, I say.
Even the most optimistic Brewers fan couldn't have expected the Brewers to win the NL Central division by more than 5 games.
Even the most optimistic Brewers fan, who expected them to beat out the Cubs for the division championship, probably expected it to come down to final 3-game series of the season vs. the Cubs at Miller Park.
(And let's be honest...the majority of people who aren't Brewers fans, didn't expect the Crew to win the division anyway.)
Anyway, the 5 games they lose with Gallardo gone will be enough to erase the 1, 2 or 3 games by which I thought the Brewers could take the NL Central.
Unless...
...they make a trade...
...a big one...
...for a big-name, top of the rotation starting pitcher.
Not unlike when the '82 Brewers picked up future Hall of Famer Don Sutton for the stretch run.
And that will be expensive.
One potential scenario that parallels the '82-Sutton situation is an acquisition of Greg Maddux.
Frankly, I don't know if that would excite me. I don't believe Maddux has much left in the tank. But, he is a guy who's been there.
Perhaps hooking up with his brother Mike Maddux (the Brewers pitching coach)...and the energy of a pennant race...could lead him to a big second half. I don't know.
Anyway, I'm sure there will be lots of other names surfacing as we get toward mid-season,,,when the teams who are out of it start shopping their good players for prospects. But you can be sure that no decent, much less top-of-the-rotation, starter will come cheap. It will easily cost a top prospect...or two...plus somebody major-league-ready...or two.
So, what to do?
Trade some of the future to try and win this year?
Or sit tight and hope Dave Bush or Jeff Weaver or someone else in the minors turns into Yovani Gallardo?
Doug Melvin...the ball is in your court.
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